In a surprising turn of events, Donald Trump, the former US President, has signed an agreement to end the war with Iran, despite his previous vow to destroy the regime. This move has sparked intense debate and raised questions about the implications for both the Middle East and global politics. Personally, I think this deal is a strategic mistake with far-reaching consequences, and I will delve into why in this analysis.
A Deal with Few Friends
The agreement, known as the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), is a 14-point plan that offers Iran significant concessions in exchange for a commitment to stop firing at ships in the Strait of Hormuz. While the US claims that the deal is not a rip-off, many experts, including former US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, argue that it is shockingly weak. What makes this deal particularly fascinating is the front-loaded sanctions relief, which provides immediate benefits to Iran without much in return.
One of the key upfront contributions from Iran is to stop firing at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing maritime traffic to reopen. However, this commitment is only for 60 days, and the subsequent management of the strait is yet to be determined. The US claims that this will thwart any attempt to impose tolls, but as pundits have pointed out, Iran has a history of wreaking havoc in the region.
Additionally, Iran gains immediate concessions in the removal of US restrictions on its oil sales and the allure of wholesale sanctions relief down the track. The deal also includes a $300 billion reconstruction and development fund, which the US is not compelled to contribute to. This fund raises concerns about potential business opportunities for Trump's own companies, making it a lucrative deal for his family.
A Lifeline for the Regime
The removal of US sanctions, reintegration into the community of nations, and the potential cash windfall are significant wins for the Iranian regime, which violently extinguished mass civic unrest in January. The deal provides a lifeline to a regime that some believed was operating on borrowed time, offering a chance for survival and a potential jackpot. This is especially true given the immense economic pressure to find an off-ramp, as highlighted by Shapiro.
However, the deal appears to have few genuine friends. Republican senators Ted Cruz and Bill Cassidy have expressed skepticism, with Cruz citing Malley's endorsement as reason enough to doubt the deal. Even Trump sycophant Lindsey Graham was lukewarm in his endorsement. This lack of support raises questions about the deal's long-term viability and the potential for a backlash from those who oppose it.
A Declaration of Aspirations?
The deal, which is more a declaration of aspirations than a serious document, envisages reintegrating Iran into the world economy in exchange for good behavior. However, most Iran experts are deeply skeptical about whether these aspirations are possible under the current regime. The Trump administration is effectively handing Tehran a major lifeline, offering a chance for survival and a potential windfall.
In conclusion, the deal to end the war with Iran is a strategic mistake with far-reaching consequences. While it provides a lifeline to the regime, it lacks genuine support and raises concerns about its long-term viability. As we move forward, it is crucial to carefully consider the implications of this deal and its potential impact on the Middle East and global politics.
